A compound event-oriented framework to tropical fire risk assessment in a changing climate

Abstract Tropical fire activity closely follows the co-occurrence of multiple climate stressors. Yet, it remains challenging to quantify how changes in alter likelihood risks associated with compound events. Recent abrupt regimes iconic landscapes Brazil (namely Pantanal and Xingu) provide a key opportunity evaluate extremely dry hot conditions, both together individually, have influenced probability large fires. Here we relationships between across these regions evidence on extent which risk impacts could be constrained if anthropogenic global warming is limited. We investigate burned area, differentiating types according land use (forest fires, savanna farming fires grassland wetland fires), derive present future linked variables. show that concurrent air dryness (high vapour-pressure deficit (VPD)) low precipitation driven occurrence Xingu Pantanal, VPD playing dominant role. Historical climatic change has already increased event-related (CE-related) all (5%–10%), are likely increase due warming. The CE-related may reduced by up 14.4% +1.5 °C instead +3 °C. Nevertheless, substantially still expected even restricting mean 1.5 °C, particularly Pantanal. thus conclude action should coordinated environmental protection reduce ignition sources promote effective conservation measures preserve biomes.